Maria Timofeeva and Elise Mertens meet in the second round of the women’s US Open on September 3, 2026, at 15:00 UTC. Mertens is rightly favored, but the line asks her to win with a neatness her recent hard-court work has rarely supplied.
Timofeeva strikes first; Mertens stays late
Timofeeva followed a commanding 6-1, 6-3 win over No. 54 Shuai Zhang by beating Tamara Zidansek 6-3, 7-5 in New York. Her early ball-striking suits this court, although the recent lower-back problem remains the sensible reason not to become too enthusiastic.
Mertens opened with a controlled 6-4, 6-4 victory over No. 107 Kaitlin Quevedo, but she arrived after a long Monterrey run that ended in a three-set final against Diane Parry. Her depth and return discipline can wear Timofeeva down; lately, however, the process has often required all three sets and rather more work than scheduled.
Four and a half games leave useful room
Their Wimbledon meeting established the pattern. Timofeeva’s first strike unsettled Mertens early, while Mertens eventually slowed the exchanges, attacked the second serve and let patience do the accounting.
Hard courts give Timofeeva a fair chance to keep that opening pressure alive for longer. The handicap covers many close straight-set defeats and most balanced three-set matches, while Mertens’ workload reduces the appeal of expecting a routine margin; Timofeeva’s back is the clear risk, but +4.5 games remains the better side of the line.
Prediction: Maria Timofeeva +4.5 games, odds 1.91
