Predictions for Cori Gauff — Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

Osorio’s serve has been the recurring weak point: Ann Li controlled her, errors hurt against Aryna Sabalenka, and even against Lanlana Tararudee she lost her first service game in both sets. Gauff’s return is a much harder test; her movement and backhand turn defence into pressure.

That is why the Under 18.5 games appeals even with Gauff’s own serve capable of wobbling. Breaks can shorten sets rather than extend them, and scores such as 6-3 6-3 or 6-2 6-4 fit the pattern; Gauff also arrives off a Cincinnati title and has a strong Beijing record.

The -6.5 handicap is less forgiving: 6-3 6-3 and 6-4 6-2 are comfortable wins but do not cover it. Gauff to win is priced too short to be useful.

The risk is sharpness. She has not played since the US Open semifinal and is working on more aggression and her first serve, so a dropped set remains possible.