Predictions for Alina Charaeva — Sonay Kartal

Charaeva’s recent defeats have been close: she lost 4-6, 5-7 to Blinkova and held match point against Bondar before falling in a final-set tie-break. In Beijing, she came from a set down to beat Starodubtseva and Rybakina, repairing a break and serving out the decider against the latter.

Charaeva +3.5 games suits that pattern better than backing her outright. Kartal has looked sharp against Lazaro Garcia and Wang, but Lazaro’s serving errors helped, and Kartal has not yet faced sustained resistance since returning from a pars stress fracture. Her demanding match against Bouzkova ended with fatigue showing late.

The 1.78 price is worth taking because it allows for a close straight-sets loss or a three-set defeat. Charaeva has spent more than five hours on court in Beijing, and her vulnerable second serve and double faults give Kartal’s return a clear route to breaks. Both had a day off, but the workload remains a concern.

Over 20.5 games is less forgiving: a clean Kartal win built on second-serve pressure could stay below the line. Charaeva’s fatigue or a post-upset dip are the risks; neither is established, but the match does not need to be comfortable for the handicap to land.