Predictions for Ayla Aksu — Fiona Crawley

The rankings do not show a class gap: Ayla Aksu is 210th, Fiona Crawley 234th, and Aksu reached a career-best 198 in July. Aksu has also taken the crowd with her in Samsun; against Alicia Dudeney she recovered from a set down and finished the job, after beating the higher-ranked Emiliana Arango in straight sets.

+3.5 games is the useful way to back that case. Crawley’s hard-court record is better, and she had an extra day’s rest, but her recent wins over Oksana Selekhmeteva and Lucia Bronzetti do not suggest a player routinely winning by a margin. The Selekhmeteva match lasted nearly three hours; at Adana, Crawley went three sets twice in qualifying, then lost another three-setter to Elena Pridankina. Her second serve and double faults offer no obvious route to a comfortable win.

Aksu +3.5 games at 1.93 covers an Aksu win and most narrow Crawley victories. Aksu to win outright asks more after her uneven September, while Over 20.5 games is less convincing: breaks can make a set one-sided. The plain risk is Aksu’s legs after playing the day before; if she fades, the handicap can go with her.