Predictions for Gabriela Andrea Knutson — Martyna Kubka

Rovereto has brought out the more convincing version of Martyna Kubka. She has looked at home on the fast indoor court, and wins over Alina Charaeva, ranked 98th, and Teodora Kostovic, ranked 149th, give that impression some weight; the rankings gap to Gabriela Andrea Knutson is tiny.

Kubka to win at 1.88 is the call. Her serve has been dependable and has given her forehand room to take the first strike, while Knutson’s latest win was a terrific escape rather than a display of control: she saved match points against Susan Bandecchi, who double-faulted at key moments, and was broken six times.

Knutson’s fight is real, but it is not quite the same as owning the match. I’m not adding a fitness angle: she had Thursday to recover after the long battle, while Kubka played that day. The caution is Kubka’s less settled form before Rovereto; in Adana, her service effectiveness dipped and she made the finish harder than it needed to be. Still, her current tennis looks better organised for these conditions.